Abstract
New antiviral influenza treatments can effectively alleviate illness while reducing viral shedding. However, how such effects can translate into lower population infections of seasonal influenza in China remains unknown. To shed light on the public health impacts of novel antiviral agents for influenza, we constructed a dynamic transmission model to simulate the seasonal influenza epidemics in China. Two antivirus treatments, baloxavir and oseltamivir, were evaluated by estimating their impacts on the incidences of influenza infection in a single flu season. In the base-case analysis of 10% antiviral treatment uptake rate, 2,760 and 3,420 per 10,000 persons contracted influenza under the treatment of baloxavir and oseltamivir, respectively. These incidence rates amounted to a 18.90% relative risk reduction (RRR) of infection associated with baloxavir in relation to oseltamivir. The corresponding RRR was 82.16% when the antiviral treatment uptake rate was inc reased to 35%. In addition, the peak of the prevlance of infected individuals (per 10,000 persons) under the baloxavir treatment was 177 (Range: 93 to 274) fewer than that of oseltamivir. Our analyses suggest that the baloxavir treatment strategy reduces the incidence of influenza in China compared with oseltamivir in the setting of a seasonal flu epidemic. Also, increasing the uptake rate of antiviral treatment can potentially prevent millions of infections during a single flu season.
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