Abstract
Background
Treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is evolving toward Intensity‐modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era, which requires patient‐specific reestimation of survival outcomes in modern health care.
Methods
A total of 488 detectable pre‐treatment Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA patients (stage II‐IVa) treated with induction chemotherapy (IC) and IMRT were examined (training set, n = 325; validation set, n = 163).
Results
Concurrent chemotherapy (CC) was still an independent prognosticator for overall survival (OS) and progression‐free survival (PFS). Both nomograms included age, T classification, N classification, post‐IC EBV DNA, and CC. Predictions correlated well with observed 3‐/5‐year OS and PFS. The concordance index was 0.776 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.86) for OS and 0.742 (95% CI 0.65–0.83) for PFS in the validation cohort. The nomograms can successfully classify patients into low‐ and high‐risk groups.
Conclusion
The validated nomograms provided useful prediction of OS and PFS for detectable pre‐treatment EBV DNA patients with NPC in IMRT era.
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