Determinants of pollution and the role of the military sector: evidence from a maximum likelihood approach with two structural breaks in the USA

Abstract

We investigate the role of military expenditure on emission in USA during the period 1960–2015. To achieve the objectives of this study, two measures of military expenditure are utilised, while several timeseries models are constructed with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, population, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, renewable energy consumption per capita, urbanisation, trade openness and financial development serving as additional determinants of air pollution. We also use ecological indicator as an alternative measure of pollution. Moreover, different timeseries methods are utilised including a likelihood-based approach with two structural breaks. The output of this research concluded that all the variables are cointegrated. It is found that military expenditure has mixed impact on CO₂ emissions. Real GDP per capita, energy consumption per capita, non-renewable energy consumption per capita, population and urbanisation increase CO₂ emissions per capita in the long-run, while renewable energy consumption, financial development and trade openness reduce it. There is also evidence for the mixed role of military expenditure, when ecological footprint is utilised as the environmental degradation index. From the output of this research, few policy recommendations are offered for the examined country.