Trends and predictors of syphilis prevalence in the general population: Global pooled analyses of 1103 prevalence measures including 136 million syphilis tests

Abstract

Background

This study assessed levels, trends, and associations of observed syphilis prevalence in the general adult population using global pooled analyses.

Methods

A standardized database of syphilis prevalence was compiled by pooling systematically-gathered data. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were conducted using data from 1990–2016 to estimate pooled measures and assess predictors and trends. Countries were classified by World Health Organization regions. Sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results

The database included 1103 prevalence measures from 136 million syphilis tests across 154 countries (85% from antenatal care women). Global pooled mean prevalence (weighted by region population size) was 1.11% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.99–1.22). Prevalence predictors were region, diagnostic assay, sample size, and calendar year interacting with region. Compared to the African Region, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.33–0.54) for the Americas, 0.13 (95% CI: 0.09–0.19) for Eastern Mediterranean, 0.05 (95% CI: 0.03–0.07) for European, 0.21 (95% CI: 0.16–0.28) for South-East Asia, and 0.41 (95% CI: 0.32–0.53) for Western Pacific. TPHA-only or RPR-only tests, compared to dual RPR/TPHA diagnosis, produced higher prevalence (AOR>1.26), as did smaller sample-size studies (<500 persons) (AOR>2.16). Prevalence declined in all regions; the annual AORs ranged from 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79–0.90) in Eastern Mediterranean to 0.97 (95% CI: 0.97–1.01) in Western Pacific. The pooled mean male-to-female prevalence ratio was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.89–1.13). Sensitivity analyses confirmed robustness of results.

Conclusion

Syphilis prevalence has declined globally over the past three decades. Large differences in prevalence persist among regions, with the African Region consistently the most affected.