Hotspots and main drivers of fecal pollution in Neusiedler See, a large shallow lake in Central Europe

Abstract

To minimize the risk of negative consequences for public health from fecal pollution in lakes, the continuous surveillance of microbiological water quality parameters, alongside other environmental variables, is necessary at defined bathing sites. Such routine surveillance may prove insufficient to elucidate the main drivers of fecal pollution in a complex lake/watershed ecosystem, and it may be that more comprehensive monitoring activities are required. In this study, the aims were to identify the hotspots and main driving factors of fecal pollution in a large shallow Central European lake, the Neusiedler See, and to determine to what degree its current monitoring network can be considered representative spatially. A stochastic and geostatistical analysis of a huge data set of water quality data (~ 164,000 data points, representing a 22-year time-series) of standard fecal indicator bacteria (SFIB), water quality and meteorological variables sampled at 26 sampling sites was conducted. It revealed that the hotspots of fecal pollution are exclusively related to sites with elevated anthropogenic activity. Background pollution from wildlife or diffuse agricultural run-off at more remote sites was comparatively low. The analysis also showed that variability in the incidence of SFIB was driven mainly by meteorological phenomena, above all, temperature, number of sunny hours, and wind (direction and speed). Due to antagonistic effects and temporal undersampling, the influence of precipitation on SFIB variance could not be clearly determined. Geostatistical analysis did reveal that the current spatial sampling density is insufficient to cover SFIB variance over the whole lake, and that the sites are therefore in the most part representative of local phenomena. Suggestions for the future monitoring and managing of fecal pollution are offered. The applied statistical approach may also serve as a model for the study of other such areas, and in general indicate a method for dealing with similarly large and spatiotemporally heterogeneous datasets.

In defense of unfair compromises

Abstract

It seems natural to think that compromises ought to be fair. But it is false. In this paper, I argue that it is never a moral desideratum to reach fair compromises and that we are sometimes even morally obligated to try to establish unfair compromises. The most plausible conception of the fairness of compromises is David Gauthier's principle of minimax relative concession. According to that principle, a compromise is fair when all parties make equal concessions relative to how much they can gain from an agreement and relative to how much they would lose without an agreement. To find out whether reaching a fair compromise sometimes is a moral desideratum, I discuss several paradigmatic cases in friendships, economics and politics, and I try to show that even when the parties have moral reasons to refrain from trying to maximize utility in the negotiations, they do not have moral reasons to aim at a fair compromise. My second claim is that we are sometimes morally obligated to try to establish unfair compromises, in particular when we are dealing with parties that try to establish morally very bad political arrangements. In such cases, we should try to concede as little as possible to achieve an outcome that is morally acceptable. Fair compromises, in other words, are morally much more dubious than is usually appreciated.